The thing with Iran is it was fucked from the very beginning.
Go back to 1979.
Khomeini. His attempts to instill a theocracy have always been flawed.
Especially when you consider the collective persona of the Iranian people. Iran is a nation that is 5,000 years old. The people identify first and foremost with being Iranian than they do with being Islamic. If anything, they are a highly autonomous and egalitarian people, which is the reason their first attempts for a democracy can be traced as far back as the second decade of the 20th century.
Unfortunately, this was doomed to failure on account of pro-(Shah)Monarchist interference on account of the British and American empires who had a vested interested in Iran’s abundant natural resources (oiiiillll)
Fast forward to 1979. The monarchy is deposed amidst a wave of popular support. Popular URBAN support for a DEMOCRACY.
Khomeini comes back from exile. Ever the Macchiavellian opportunist, he mobilises the rural population to gain some form of ascendancy over his political opponents. He’s a hardliner, but he’s shrewd.
Here’s an example: back in the 60s, he vehemently opposed female suffrage. In 79, he (begrudgingly) supported it on account of the level of female support he had gained (on account of being a studmuffin? fucked if I know any better).
He wanted an explicitly devoutly Muslim nation that defined itself as being governed by the fundamental tenets of Islam and governed by Allah himself, on behalf of the will of a ‘nominated’ leader who himself was supposed to be directly descended from the original Twelvist Shiite Muslims (key word here is ‘supposed’. Dictators use any emotive means to justify their authority, no matter how ultimately flimsy. Hence why any Ayatollah is more a dictator than a religious figure, in my opinion).
A wave of popular opinion opposed Khomeini’s proposition. He was forced to concede a democracy. He proposed a theocratic system where, indeed Iran would be governed by Allah himself, but would incorporate some democratic processes:
- The Leader is the direct representative of Allah. All are to obey his will.
- The Assembly of Experts: a group of 86 Twelvist Shiite clerics who determine the position of the Leader/Ayatollah.
- The Council of Guardians: a group of 12 Clerics nominated by the Leader… who have the capacity to veto all decisions made by the Parliament and Assembly of Experts. So basically… the Leader’s position is effectively unassailable.
- A Parliament and President elected by popular ballot.
It is this self-contradictory system which I believe not only highlights Macchiavellian brilliance of Khomeini, but also the level of voter apathy that has plagued Iran up until recently. In past elections, nominated candidates have been known to have their positions vetoed by the Assembly of Experts or Council of Guardians, and this has led to weak voter turnouts and general disenchantment amongst the voting populace. So the age for suffrage was reduced to 15.
But when shit has gotten hectic for Ahmadinejad and his hardliner cronies… the age was increased to 18. This is generally because of the ballot influence of the ‘new’ Iranian. The young Iranian has only heard stories of their forefather’s heroic battle stories of the Iran-Iraq war. They didn’t experience it directly. Hence why the popularity of Ahmadinejad, who fought in those wars and used his role as a soldier to appeal to his generation, has declined. The kids just don’t relate to it. And they are certainly tired their impositions their theocratic system has placed on their lives.
They are better able to communicate with the multitudes of ex-pat Iranians in America, Australia and Germany. They see what the Western world has delivered for their cousins, friends, extended family, etc. They continue to exist in a system that not only imposes upon their lives, but are plagued by unemployment and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on oil by is effectively screwed by their international relations (however, I consider this factor understandable; if you’d had your nation systematically fucked over by the west over the course of a century, it’d be a little difficult to want to deal with them on ‘normal’ terms again).
Bottom line is: Ahmadinnerjacket has to go. He won’t. Not for a while, at least.
Iran’s system is less a theocracy than a totalitarian system. Khomeini wanted nothing more than to;
- Dominate the lives of the populace. I’ve seen no evidence that states otherwise.
- Use Islam to permeate the lives and thinking of the Iranian populace to consolidate his will and rule.